Agenda item

A report that provides an update on the Council’s 2023/24 forecast revenue budget position at Annex 1 and the financial position of the capital programme as at 30 November 2023 (Month 8) together with the revised capital programme 2023/24 to 2027/28.

The Cabinet considered a report of the Director of Finance which provided members with an update on the Council’s 2023/24 forecast revenue budget position, at Annex 1 and the financial position of the capital programme as at 30^th November 2023 (Month 8) together with the revised capital programme 2023/24 to 2027/28, as outlined in section two of the report at Annex 2.

The report advised that the forecast outturn position for 2023/24 was a projected adverse variance of £16.194m after allowing for approved and pending transfers to and from reserves. There are significant variances contained within the projected net overspend within three areas forecasting pressures:

• Children’s Services is forecasting a pressure of £13.386m;

• Place and Economic Growth is forecasting a pressure of £5.312m; and

• Community Health and Adult Social Care is forecasting a pressure of £0.815m.

These pressures will continue to be closely monitored for the remainder of the financial year with action taken to address variances and mitigating action to be taken as appropriate and as detailed in the submitted report. Favourable variances across the remaining portfolios totalling £3.318m were offsetting these pressures in these three areas.

The forecast pressure of £16.194m at Month 8 was an increase of £1.605m on the adverse position of £14.589m reported at quarter 2. Management actions that have been approved to review and challenge planned expenditure, control recruitment and to maximise income would hopefully have an impact on the anticipated the outturn deficit position. This should be demonstrated in the update report that will be presented to Cabinet at month 9. Information on the Month 8 position of the Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG), Housing Revenue Account (HRA) and Collection Fund were also outlined in the submitted report.

As reported to previous Cabinet meetings, the position on the DSG continued to improve and as at month 8 it was forecasting an in-year surplus of £2.117m, with an estimate that the year-end position will be a surplus of £3.561m. Action will continue to be taken with the aim of mitigating cost pressures and delivering and maintaining a surplus position. To assist, Oldham is taking part in the Department for Education sponsored Delivering Better Value in SEND (Special Educational Needs and Disabilities) which will provide dedicated support for the SEND Review reforms to 55 Local Authorities with historical DSG deficit issues with the aim of putting the DSG of participating Authorities on a more financially sustainable footing There was currently no significant issues of concern in relation to the HRA. The Collection Fund was forecasting an in-year surplus of £0.805m. The Collection Fund was reported as being particularly volatile, whilst currently in surplus the position would continue to be closely monitored throughout the year as any surplus or deficit at the end of the financial year would have a direct budgetary impact in 2024/25.

The report outlined the most up to date capital spending position for 2023/24 to 2027/28 for approved schemes. The revised capital programme budget for 2023/24 is £78.633m at the close of month 8, representing a net decrease of £31.672m from the original budget of £110.305m. the actual expenditure to 30 November 2023 was £46.267m (58.84% of the forecast outturn). It is likely that the forecast position would continue to change as the year draws to a close with additional re-profiling into future years.

The Month 8 Revenue Monitor and the Capital Investment Programme 2023/24 report was presented to the Governance, Strategy and Resources Scrutiny Board on 25^th January 2024, to accompany the suite of 2024/25 budget reports. The Scrutiny Board was content to note the report and commend it to this Cabinet meeting for approval.

Options/alternatives considered:

The options available to Cabinet were:

a.    To consider the forecast revenue and capital positions presented in the report including proposed changes; and

b.    To propose alternative forecasts.

Resolved:

That the Cabinet approves and commends to Council:

1.    The forecast revenue outturn for 2023/24 at Month 8 being a £16.194m adverse variance.

2.    The forecast positions for the Dedicated Schools Grant, Housing Revenue Account and Collection Fund.

3.    The revised capital programme for 2023/24 and the forecast for the financial years to 2027/28 as at Month 8.